Macro

14 concepts in this category.

• GDP Growth

  GDP growth measures how much the economy grew (or shrank). Think of it as the economy's report card. Above 2-3% is healthy. Two consecutive negative quarters = recession. Recessions hurt stocks but eventually lead to recoveries.

• Inflation Rate

  Inflation measures how fast prices are rising. At 2%, things cost 2% more each year — acceptable. At 8%, your money loses value fast, and the Fed raises rates to fight it, which usually hurts stocks.

• Unemployment Rate

  The unemployment rate shows what percentage of people who want to work can't find a job. Below 5% is considered healthy. Very low unemployment (below 3.5%) can actually cause inflation as companies compete for workers.

• Fed Funds Rate

  The Fed funds rate is the interest rate banks charge each other overnight. When the Fed raises it, borrowing becomes more expensive everywhere — mortgages, car loans, business loans. Higher rates usually hurt stocks, especially growth stocks.

• VIX (Volatility Index)

  VIX is called the 'fear gauge.' When investors are scared, they buy options to protect themselves, which pushes VIX up. VIX above 30 means real fear in the market. Below 15 means complacency. Extreme fear is often a contrarian buy signal.

• Yield Curve

  Normally, long-term bonds yield more than short-term ones (upward sloping). When short-term yields exceed long-term (inverted curve), it's historically predicted every US recession in the past 50 years. Investors call this the most reliable recession indicator.

• Credit Spread

  Credit spreads measure how much extra yield investors demand to hold corporate bonds instead of safe government bonds. Widening spreads mean investors are worried about defaults — a warning sign for stocks too.

• Treasury Yield

  Treasury yields are the interest rates the US government pays to borrow money. They're the foundation of all financial pricing. When 10-year yields rise, it hurts stocks (especially growth stocks) because bonds become a more attractive alternative.

• Recession Probability

  Economists combine yield curve data, unemployment trends, and other indicators to estimate the probability of recession. Above 30% is a warning; above 50% suggests recession is more likely than not.

• Consumer Confidence

  Consumer confidence surveys ask regular people if they feel good or bad about the economy and their finances. Since consumer spending is 70% of GDP, when people feel bad, they spend less, and the economy slows.

• PMI (Purchasing Managers Index)

  PMI asks business purchasing managers if activity is better or worse than last month. Above 50 means expansion; below 50 means contraction. It's one of the fastest economic indicators — released monthly before most other data.

• Housing Starts

  Housing starts track how many new homes are being built. When builders are confident, they start more homes — it's a sign of a healthy economy. A housing bust (like 2008) can drag down the entire economy.

• Market Indices

  An index tracks a group of stocks to gauge how a market or sector is doing. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) tracks 500 large US companies, NASDAQ-100 (^NDX) tracks 100 big tech/growth names, Dow (^DJI) tracks 30 blue chips, Russell 2000 (^RUT) tracks 2,000 small caps. Index ≠ ETF — ETFs like SPY are investable proxies, but the index is the underlying reference.

• Market Regime

  Markets behave differently in different regimes. A bull regime rewards growth and risk; a bear regime rewards defensives and cash; high-volatility regimes punish leverage. We combine VIX, the 10Y–2Y yield spread, and credit spreads to classify the current regime so you can size positions and pick strategies accordingly.