Three-Scenario DCF Valuation

A detailed DCF valuation framework that projects a company's future cash flows and discounts them back to today's value. It runs bull, base, and bear scenarios to give you a range of what the stock is truly worth.

This framework builds a discounted cash flow model in the sequence a valuation analyst would: a five-year revenue projection anchored to historical growth and addressable market, free cash flow derived from projected margins and capital intensity, a weighted average cost of capital estimated from the cost of equity and cost of debt, and a terminal value cross-checked between the perpetuity-growth and exit-multiple methods. It then runs bull, base, and bear scenarios with assigned probabilities to produce a probability-weighted fair-value range, shows how the current market price sits relative to that range, and flags which assumptions the conclusion is most sensitive to — the inputs where a small change in estimate moves the valuation the most.